Thursday, April 29, 2010
Puppy and CR
Saturday, April 17, 2010
A little more on the HH I posted last time
As a side note, just because you only have 45% equity against his calling range doesn't mean shoving isn't the best option. If you have 26% equity against his shoving range if you check, shoving here will be better than c/f even if you're only ahead 33% when called.
Ok, so at first I was confused because I was pretty sure you needed to have more than 50% equity on the river for value betting to be correct. After doing some quick numbers it looked like Nick was correct but I was still very skeptical. I've been out running errands all day and every so often I would think about this at it was driving me pretty crazy, damn you Nick... ha just kidding, thanks for the comment that really made me think. Also thanks to TJ for your comment a definitely look back through your HH's every so often to look for spots like this.
After doing some more work, what I've realized is that Nick is correct in some scenarios where shoving is going to be better than c/f'ing even when we have less than 50% equity. But those situations come up when you are afraid of c/f'ing the best hand some of the time which I'm not really afraid of in this spot, although admittedly I'm not 100% sure what Padirk will do with the 6 combos of AK he gets to the river with if I check.
Anyway here is what I did. I basically broke down villains range for getting to the river. He gets to the river by my best estimation with 26 combos.
6 combos of AK
3 combos of KQs
3 combos of KK
6 combos of QQ
3 combos of JJ
3 combos of TT
and 2 combos of KJs.
So we are ahead of 15 of those combos and lose to 11 of them. Lets assume he calls with all the hands we beat except QQ. So then we get 6 combos of folds, 9 combos of called by worse, and 11 combos of called by better. This is assuming about as wide of a calling range as we can give him(probably too wide for this particular player)
EV= ((6/26)*570) + ((9/26)*570+397) + ((11/26)*-397) = $298
Ok, and then the EV of checking assuming that he checks back all worse(never bluffs/never value bets worse) is
EV= ((15/26)*570) = $329
This is about as simple as we can make this calculation, so as you can see c/f'ing is about $29 better than shoving. And both are way better than c/c'ing. If you are wondering what the EV of c/c'ing is with our above assumptions is
EV= ((15/26)*570) + ((11/26)*-397) = $161.
The really tricky part of all of this is figuring out what he's going to do realistically with those 26 combos on the river. My best guess is that he folds all of his QQ, KQs and maybe hero folds 2 of the 6 combos of AK. So now we are at 11 combos that fold to our shove, 4 that call and lose, and still the 11 that call and win.
EV= ((11/26)*570) + ((4/26)*570+397) + ((11/26)*-397) = $222
Now we have to guesstimate what he is going to do with AK when we check. This is the most important part of everything because this will decide whether to shove, c/f, or even (gasp!) c/c.
My best guess is that he shoves at most 1/2 or 3 of the AK combos he gets to the river with, and never turns a hand into a bluff. So now the EV of c/f'ing the river is
EV= ((12/26)*570) = $263
And even with him shoving 3 combos of AK that we beat c/c'ing the river is
EV= ((12/26)*570) + ((11/26)*-397) + ((3/26)*570 + 397) = $207.
So in general it appears that check/folding the river is always going to be the best play vs this player given the above tendencies. With all of my number crunching I don't think I ran into a scenario where shoving was the most + EV play however. So I'm still not sure what Nick is referring to. Maybe Nick you could post a scenario? My brain is a bit too fried to go through the scenario you described above with regards to the 26% and 33% equity.
The only scenario I've come up with where shoving is better than c/c'ing is when c/c'ing then becomes the best option. And that comes up when I think the player will hero fold 2 of his combos of AK when I shove into him, but valueshove the 6 of his combos of AK when checked too.
Those EV's look like this
Shove = ((11/26)*(570))+((4/26)*(570+397))+((11/26)*(-397)) = $222
C/F = ((9/26)*(570)) = $197
C/C = ((12/26)*570)+((11/26)*-397)+((4/26)*(570+397)) = $253
Ok. phewwwwwwwwwww that was a lot of work. I'm out. If anyone finds and discrepancies or problems leave a comment. Later.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Tax Season :(
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Tiger Tiger Tiger
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Finally, a Desk! Pics and March Recap.
Well I finally got my desk today, which is exciting because I no longer have to 6 table on my laptop while sitting on my couch. I ordered it almost 3 weeks ago and after some problems, it was finally delivered today. Weeee.
Here’s a pic of my setup.
Now the cool thing about this desk is that I can raise and lower it at the touch of a button. I think its range is anywhere from 24” to 52” off the ground, which is awesome because sometimes I get tired of sitting so now I can stand and play poker if I’d like.
Sitting mode
Standing mode
Pretty awesome if you ask me. Now I was waiting for the desk so I could also put up pictures of the new condo my wife and I just moved into. Its a pretty spacious 1600 sq. ft, 2 bedroom, 2 bath. We bought all new furniture just before we got married and have been receiving bits and pieces of it every week since we got back from the honeymoon. The desk was the last piece of the puzzle, so here goes.
Right when you walk in, look to the left and you get the living room.
Living room, shot from kitchen. The left side of this picture is where you enter the condo.
To the right as you walk in is the master bedroom.
Master bedroom, different angle.
Master bath, there is a huge walk in closet behind that door.
Master bath, garden tub and walk in shower. Toilet is across from the shower behind a corner.
A look at the kitchen, which is just to the right of the living room as you walk in. Breakfast area to the left.
Kitchen again
My office
Guest bathroom
Guest bedroom, converted into golf room.
Obligatory Lil’ Wayne poster. Picture taken by my wife at a concert we went to.
As for poker. March started off sooooooooooo bad. I just look at this graph and laugh because for the first 30K+ hands I was breakeven in showdown winnings. Wow was I running bad. Coming back from the wedding/honeymoon break and being a bit rusty probably didn’t help either. It took about a week to knock off the rust and the runbad, and then I think around the 19th things just took off. All in all, can’t be to unhappy. I did eclipse the $10k mark if I include rakeback, and I’m proud of how I was able to bounce back during the last 1/3rd of the month.
Well that’s all I got for now. Run good at life everyone.