As for poker, I played a little bit yesterday. Ended up making around $1k playing 5/10 and then late last night I made $500 messing around at 2/4 PLO. There weren't many interesting hands, except in PLO where I would get it all in, we would Run It Twice and my mind couldn't follow the action fast enough to know whether or not I was going to win the hand.
I did however make probably the biggest fold of my life last night. Here is the hand history.
No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($3818)
UTG ($1000)
MP ($2042)
Button ($2597)
SB ($1000)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 4
, 4
1 fold, MP bets $29, Button calls $29, SB calls $24, Hero calls $19
Flop: ($116) 7
, 4, 9
(4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $44, 1 fold, SB raises $180, Hero raises $460, MP raises $934, SB calls $791 (All-In), Hero folds
Turn: ($2518) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: ($2518) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $2518
Results:
SB had 10, K (flush, King high).
MP had 9, Q (flush, Queen high).
Outcome: SB won $2515
So I think this is the first time I ever folded a set on the flop where a flush or straight wasn't possible. I think the hand is really interesting when it gets back to me on the flop and I'm facing a cbet from the PFR, and a c/r from the SB. If I was 100bbs deep with the PFR this would be a pretty no-brainer, fist-pump get the money in. At 200bbs deep I think it gets a bit more interesting. Directly after the hand I was upset at myself for folding(although I was happy when I saw the turn card, I was 3x more unhappy when I saw the river, lol results orientedaments)
Looking at the hand in pokerstove my equity is in fact pretty crappy. Here are the ranges I assigned them....
Board: 4d 7d 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Me : 23.646% 23.65% 00.00% 33736 0.00 { 4c4h }
SB : 34.942% 34.88% 00.06% 49768 85.00 { 99, 77, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, 97s, 6d5d }
PFR : 41.413% 41.35% 00.06% 59000 85.00 { 99, 77, Td9d, Td8d, 97s, 8d6d, 8d5d, 6d5d }
So I only have approximately 24%. Now I'm trying to crunch the numbers but it's a little difficult. I'm just going to treat bobbou's raise to $9xx as a shove since its pretty apparent he's never folding. So after I raise to $460 and he "shoves" and the SB shoves the pot size is $3604. I need to call $1553 more so I need about 30% equity for jamming to be profitable. Since I only have 24% against what I would consider pretty accurate ranges it looks like I made the correct fold. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Unfortunately I would have made quads on the river to win the pot but, eh, I'm just excited I made the "right" decision.
I'm not sure how much poker I will get in over the Thanksgiving break, maybe some on the plane since Airtran has Wi-Fi on all flights now. Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving and I'll update this if I play any. Later.
Hero (BB) ($3818)
UTG ($1000)
MP ($2042)
Button ($2597)
SB ($1000)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 4
, 41 fold, MP bets $29, Button calls $29, SB calls $24, Hero calls $19
Flop: ($116) 7
, 4, 9 (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $44, 1 fold, SB raises $180, Hero raises $460, MP raises $934, SB calls $791 (All-In), Hero folds
Turn: ($2518) 2
(2 players, 1 all-in)River: ($2518) 4
(2 players, 1 all-in)Total pot: $2518
Results:
SB had 10
, K (flush, King high).MP had 9
, Q (flush, Queen high).Outcome: SB won $2515
So I think this is the first time I ever folded a set on the flop where a flush or straight wasn't possible. I think the hand is really interesting when it gets back to me on the flop and I'm facing a cbet from the PFR, and a c/r from the SB. If I was 100bbs deep with the PFR this would be a pretty no-brainer, fist-pump get the money in. At 200bbs deep I think it gets a bit more interesting. Directly after the hand I was upset at myself for folding(although I was happy when I saw the turn card, I was 3x more unhappy when I saw the river, lol results orientedaments)
Looking at the hand in pokerstove my equity is in fact pretty crappy. Here are the ranges I assigned them....
Board: 4d 7d 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Me : 23.646% 23.65% 00.00% 33736 0.00 { 4c4h }
SB : 34.942% 34.88% 00.06% 49768 85.00 { 99, 77, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, JdTd, 97s, 6d5d }
PFR : 41.413% 41.35% 00.06% 59000 85.00 { 99, 77, Td9d, Td8d, 97s, 8d6d, 8d5d, 6d5d }
So I only have approximately 24%. Now I'm trying to crunch the numbers but it's a little difficult. I'm just going to treat bobbou's raise to $9xx as a shove since its pretty apparent he's never folding. So after I raise to $460 and he "shoves" and the SB shoves the pot size is $3604. I need to call $1553 more so I need about 30% equity for jamming to be profitable. Since I only have 24% against what I would consider pretty accurate ranges it looks like I made the correct fold. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. Unfortunately I would have made quads on the river to win the pot but, eh, I'm just excited I made the "right" decision.
I'm not sure how much poker I will get in over the Thanksgiving break, maybe some on the plane since Airtran has Wi-Fi on all flights now. Hope everyone has a good Thanksgiving and I'll update this if I play any. Later.
the math to this hand isn't that simple though. The 24% is the time you win the main pot but the times SB wins you still have equity in the additional 2k sidepot you and MP have, so you have to account that in which gets kinda complex. I mean imagine if SB had like a 20bb stack, the equity he'd have in the pot would be pretty meaningless to your overall EV of the scenario.
ReplyDeleteI crunched some numbers on this hand on another equity calculator and I think given the ranges you gave it's pretty near 0EV to get it in assuming MP never folds. Not sure though, it's complicated.
Is it standard for you to go for a cr when you flop like this from the blinds multiway? You ever lead? What kind of things are you looking for as far as deciding when to lead and when to check?
Hey mikidi,
ReplyDeleteyea I was a bit lazy doing the math. You are right I will have to calculate my ev in the 3 way main pot and then in the heads up side pot. Either way I think its pretty close between calling and folding although I would probably lean towards folding.
I decided to c/r here because the pfr was a pretty sprewy player who loved to cbet and my relative position is amazing. In case you are not sure what relative position is, it means that once the PFR acts, I get to see what the other 2 callers do before making a decision. So i check the flop, anticipating that the pfr is going to make a cbet, and then I might be able to squeeze one of the other 2 people if they decide to call on the flop.
I dont have too much of a leading range if any in these 4 way pots.
Nxt,
ReplyDeleteGiven the ranges you posted a call is going to be roughly +$8 EV. You win the main pot ~24% of the time and are puting in $511 to win $3029; this gives you $216 in EV. You win the side pot 40% of the time and are puting in $1042 to win $2084 so -$208 in EV.
However, you left out 98s from your calc and A9s from the PFR (also J9s/Q9s some percent of the time depending on the PFR). Given adding in 98s for both PFR and SB and A9s for PFR a call is +$140 (without Q9s or J9s in there).
You really can't fold there unless MP is nitty enough not to have some of those combo draws or top two (particularly 97s since that's two combos that you crush). If they ever show up with worse made hands or draws like Q9s/J9s a fold is a huge mistake.
-Kerpowski
Hey Kerpowski,
ReplyDeleteYea looks like your calculations are a bit more exact. You say that I left out 98s and A9s from the PFR's range, but I left those out on purpose. I wasn't expecting the PFR to be 4 betting those on the flop flop. I thought he would be more inclined to call with those given he has position.
I would have to say that both villains in this hand played it pretty terribly. I think the PFR's 4 bet on the flop is atrocious, and that the SB calling it off with the K hi fd is pretty terrible as well.